Below-normal harvests and COVID-19 restrictions will likely worsen food security outcomes
In June, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are likely among poor households in urban areas with some of the worst-affected households facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes following the reinstatement of stringent COVID-19 movement restrictions for 42 days. Reductions in daily wage-earning opportunities, limited alternatives for earning income, and delayed and inadequate coverage of cash assistance from the government are expected to drive insufficient food access. Although the availability of the bimodal harvest in June is maintaining below-average staple food prices, the loss of income during this period is expected to reduce food access among poor urban households through at least August.
Due to persistently poor rainfall through the end of the March to May first season harvests in most of greater northern Uganda are delayed and below-average. As a result, most poor rural households have below-normal income from crop sales and seasonally limited income from other sources. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are likely in greater northern Uganda through September.
In Karamoja, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected through September with some of the poorest households likely in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), particularly in Kaabong and Moroto districts worsened by limited income sources to purchase food. Food insecurity is driven by a delayed and significantly belowaverage main season harvest, COVID-19 restrictions, and livestock loss through raids, which have together reduced local food availability and household purchasing power. Although the availability of the harvest in October/November will temporarily improve food security, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will persist in areas where crop harvests are likely to be insignificant.
Given below-normal crop production and low capacity to earn income following a reinstated national lockdown, many refugees are expected to face Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes throughout the projection period, meaning that at least 20 percent of refugees in each settlement are likely experiencing slight to moderate food consumption gaps or engaging in negative and unsustainable coping strategies. Humanitarian food assistance, estimated at a 60 percent ration, is likely preventing worse outcomes but is insufficient to meet all basic food needs for many refugee households. Based on available plans from WFP, in-kind assistance is funded through August and cash-based assistance is funded through September. WFP anticipates a pipeline break in funding after September. However, historical trends suggest that additional funding will likely be secured to continue with assistance throughout the projection period, even though ration sizes may be reduced.