Spain: How will tourism support the recovery? | Article


Assumptions in our base case

EU (Belgium, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands and Portugal)

In the first quarter, there were 88% fewer tourists from the EU compared to the first quarter of 2019. For the second quarter, we expect a slight improvement (we assume that the number of EU tourists in April, May and June is at 20%, 30% and 40%, respectively, of the level in 2019). In the third quarter, we expect a large increase due to the improved health situation and the EU certificate, with a further improvement in the fourth quarter (we assume that the number of EU tourists in the second and third quarters is at 75% and 90%, respectively, of the level in 2019).

UK

In the first quarter, there were 98% fewer tourists from the UK compared to the first quarter of 2019. For the second quarter, we expect a slight improvement in April and May, and a large improvement in June on the back of Spain being added to the UK’s ‘green’ list (we assume that the number of British tourists in April, May and June is at 5%, 15% and 75%, respectively, of the level in 2019). In the third quarter, we expect the situation as that seen in June will continue, while the fourth quarter is likely to see a further improvement (we assume that the number of British tourists in the second and third quarters is at 75% and 90%, respectively, of the level in 2019).

Rest of the world

In the first quarter, there were 92% fewer tourists from the rest of the world compared to the first quarter of 2019. For the second quarter, we expect a marginal improvement (we assume that the number of tourists from the rest of the world in April, May and June is at 10%, 15% and 20%, respectively, of the level in 2019). In the third quarter, we expect an increase and a further improvement in the fourth quarter (we assume that the number of tourists from the rest of the world in the second and third quarters is at 40% and 70%, respectively, of the level in 2019).



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